CWS Market Review – July 11, 2025
“See, the stock market only deals in facts, in reality, in reason, and the stock market is never wrong. Traders are wrong.” – Jesse Livermore
The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 6,280.46. That’s a new all-time high.
Hit it, Rita. We missed you!
Now that we have some distance, we can see that the last three months have been a remarkably strong rally. Since April 8%, the S&P 500 has gained 26%.
Not only has it been an upwards market, but it’s been a calm one as well. If you recall, that’s not how things started. On April 3-4, the S&P 500 plunged 10.5%. Then on April 9, the index soared 9.5%. That was the third-best day for the index in the last 85 years. Nothing upsets the market quite like tariffs.
How things have changed. We haven’t had even a 1% move, up or down, in the last 11 sessions. I have been concerned to see how well growth stocks have done compared with value stocks. It’s almost like two different markets.
Since April 8, the S&P 500 Growth ETF has gained 33.97%, while the S&P 500 Value ETF is up 18.74%. The S&P 500 Tech ETF has gained 43.22%, while the S&P 500 Ex-Tech ETF is up 18.92%.
Many of the titanic tech firms have become even more dominant. According to Zerohedge, just one stock, Nvidia, is now larger than five sectors in the S&P 500: Staples, Energy, Utilities, REITs and Materials. (That’s individually, not combined.)
Things may change soon. Q2 Earnings season starts next week. It will be nice to have something in the headlines that’s not about tariffs. In this week’s issue, I’ll talk about how Wall Street analysts have been slashing their forecasts ahead of earnings season even more than usual.
I’ll also highlight next week’s earnings report from Abbott Labs. The healthcare company will our first Buy List earnings report for this earnings season. It’s been a nice winner for us this year. I also have some Buy List updates for you, including the recent news at FICO. But first, let’s look at what analysts have been up to.